Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Unlike most razors this one is
mechanisable, because peira already carries both halves as typed values: Grade on
edges, and Pramana::grade_ceiling bounding what a means of knowing can support.
The gate is a monotonicity requirement — the evidence grade supporting a claim must
scale with the strength of what is claimed. A counterfactual-rung claim resting on a
single Weak observation is the shape to catch.
This composes with PEIR-GRADE-EXCEEDS-PRAMANA rather than duplicating it. That gate
bounds a single edge by its means of knowing; this one relates the aggregate of the
supporting evidence to the ambition of the claim.
Worth doing after #1 and #3, since the notion of claim strength wants settling first —
the causal rung is the obvious candidate, and reusing it beats inventing a second
strength scale.
Source: Laplace, Essai philosophique sur les probabilités (1814); popularised by
Sagan, Cosmos (1980), ep. 12.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Unlike most razors this one is
mechanisable, because peira already carries both halves as typed values:
Gradeonedges, and
Pramana::grade_ceilingbounding what a means of knowing can support.The gate is a monotonicity requirement — the evidence grade supporting a claim must
scale with the strength of what is claimed. A counterfactual-rung claim resting on a
single
Weakobservation is the shape to catch.This composes with
PEIR-GRADE-EXCEEDS-PRAMANArather than duplicating it. That gatebounds a single edge by its means of knowing; this one relates the aggregate of the
supporting evidence to the ambition of the claim.
Worth doing after #1 and #3, since the notion of claim strength wants settling first —
the causal rung is the obvious candidate, and reusing it beats inventing a second
strength scale.
Source: Laplace, Essai philosophique sur les probabilités (1814); popularised by
Sagan, Cosmos (1980), ep. 12.