[Epic] v1.3: ASHRAE 140 Blind Validation (Physics Only)

[anchapin]

Epic: v1.3 — ASHRAE 140 Blind Validation (Physics Only)

Goal: Achieve ASHRAE 140 validation with true blind test methodology — no calibration factors, no case-specific corrections, physics-only model.

Background

The current ASHRAE 140 validation is "informed" not "blind":

• Case IDs are known before simulation
• Post-simulation corrections are applied (e.g., Case 900 heating ÷ 4.0, cooling × 0.50)
• Benchmark ranges are "calibrated for 5R1C" — meaning they validate against the broken model, not true ASHRAE reference values

This epic establishes the path to genuine physics-only compliance.

Current State

Metric	Value
Pass rate WITH corrections	9.4% (6/64)
Pass rate WITHOUT corrections	~0%
Mean Absolute Error	153.37%
Max Deviation	803.33%

Target State

• Blind execution: No case ID, no case-type hints
• Zero correction factors: All empirical adjustments removed
• True reference values: Actual EnergyPlus/ESP-r/TRNSYS outputs
• 80%+ pass rate: Across all ASHRAE 140 standard test cases

Phases

Phase	Issue	Description
A	#662, #663	Baseline stripping — catalog corrections, measure true baseline
B.1	#664	Solar distribution fix (6 weeks)
B.2	#665	Thermal mass time constant fix (6 weeks)
B.3	#666	Free-floating temperature fix (6 weeks)
C	#667	Benchmark correction — true reference data
D	#668	Blind validation pass — 80%+ target
E	#669	CI gate + annual re-validation

Key Bugs

• [Bug] Free-floating temperatures are physically impossible (125°C vs 41-46°C reference) #670: Free-floating temperatures physically impossible (125°C vs 41-46°C)
• [Bug] Post-simulation case-specific corrections distort validation #671: Post-simulation case-specific corrections distort validation

Success Criteria

1. cargo test --test ashrae_140_blind passes ≥80% of cases
2. No case ID passed to simulation engine
3. No correction factors in source code
4. Benchmark uses true reference values (not "calibrated for 5R1C")
5. CI gate prevents regressions below 80%

Timeline Estimate

28 weeks (uncertain — physics fixes are scope-dependent)

Labels: epic, validation, ashrae-140, v1.3