This project has models for different aspects of Coronavirus propagation dynamics. More specifically the focus is on the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 and the economic impact of COVID-19.
The following mind-map illustrates the scope of the considered model:
This diagram shows the "big picture" in which the considered model is a major part of:
In order to build or confirm certain modeling conjectures and assumptions certain data analysis is required.
A fair amount of links to data and data analysis can be found here:
"Resources For Novel Coronavirus COVID-19", [WRI1].
A small, lightweight software framework for retrieval of the basic compartmental epidemiology models.
The framework consists of the packages:
See the document "Basic experiments workflow for simple epidemiological models" for the envisioned general workflow, interactive interfaces, and ad-hoc calibration.
Generally speaking, the System dynamics methodology is used.
The first model uses a lot of simplifying assumptions and deals only with:
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eight types of populations (no age is included),
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available hospital beds,
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medical supplies, and
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related costs.
Nevertheless, that simple model provides certain insights and it is a good starting point for multiple types of model extensions.
Here is a component interaction diagram:
Here is "a teaser" of how the simple model interactive interface looks like:
The work plan and its completion state can be found here.
The following graph shows the development plan:
(The check marks indicate completion; the triangles indicate current focus.)
Calibration issues are (briefly) discussed in "Basic experiments workflow for simple epidemiological models", [AA2].
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"COVID19 Epidemic Modeling: Compartmental Models", based on [AA2].
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"Scaling of Epidemiology Models with Multi-site Compartments", based on [AA3].
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"Simple Economic Extension of Compartmental Epidemiological Models".
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"Geo-spatial-temporal COVID-19 Simulations and Visualizations Over USA", based on [AA3]
[CDC1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov .
[WRI1] Wolfram Research, Inc. "Resources For Novel Coronavirus COVID-19", (2020) Community.wolfram.com.
[AA1] Anton Antonov, "Coronavirus propagation modeling considerations", (2020), SystemModeling at GitHub.
[AA2] Anton Antonov, "Basic experiments workflow for simple epidemiological models", (2020), SystemModeling at GitHub.
[AA3] Anton Antonov, "Scaling of Epidemiology Models with Multi-site Compartments", (2020), SystemModeling at GitHub.
[AA4] Anton Antonov, "NY Times COVID-19 data visualization", (2020), SystemModeling at GitHub.
[AAv1] Anton Antonov, COVID19 Epidemic Modeling: Compartmental Models, (2020), Wolfram YouTube channel .
[AAv2] Anton Antonov, Scaling of Epidemiology Models with Multi-site Compartments, (2020), Wolfram YouTube channel .
[AAv3] Anton Antonov, Simple Economic Extension of Compartmental Epidemiological Models, (2020), Wolfram YouTube channel .
[DZv1] Diego Zviovich, Geo-spatial-temporal COVID-19 Simulations and Visualizations Over USA, (2020), Wolfram YouTube channel .