Skip to content

investigate: XAUUSD/GBPUSD 0 trades in OOS 2026 Q1 #78

Description

@cfournel

Observation

OOS test (2026.01.01 → 2026.03.28) produced 0 trades for XAUUSD and GBPUSD:

Symbol Trades Notes
XAUUSD 0 KZ1=11-14, KZ2=20-23, MacroTrend W1=true
GBPUSD 0 KZ1=8-12, KZ2=13-16, MacroTrend=true
USDJPY 3 ✓ PF=2.55
EURJPY 4 ✓ PF=1.36

Possible causes

  1. Genuine signal drought — tight kill zones + MacroTrend filter blocked all entries in a 3-month window
  2. W1 macro trend blocker — XAUUSD uses inpMacroTrendEnabled=true with W1 trend; if W1 was in downtrend for much of Q1 2026 it would block all LONG entries
  3. Tick data gap — tester may not have had real ticks for 2026 Q1 (test ran in 22s for XAUUSD vs 177s for full-period)

Investigation steps

  • Run manual XAUUSD backtest for Jan-Mar 2026 with logging to check filter rejection counts
  • Check if inpMacroTrendEnabled=false produces trades in same period
  • Compare tester run time: 22s vs expected ~40-50s for 3 months of real ticks

Metadata

Metadata

Assignees

Labels

No labels
No labels

Projects

No projects

Milestone

No milestone

Relationships

None yet

Development

No branches or pull requests

Issue actions