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16 | 16 |
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17 | 17 | ## Propensity Model {#sec-alg-mark-prop .unnumbered} |
18 | 18 |
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19 | | -- Uses GA data for your website to model probabilities of a customer purchasing |
| 19 | +- Models probabilities of a customer purchasing, so you can use efficiently target customers more likely to buy. |
20 | 20 | - Helps marketers to decrease cost per acquisition (CPA) and increase ROI |
21 | 21 | - You might want to have a different marketing approach with a customer that is very close to buying than with one who might not even have heard of your product. |
22 | 22 | - Also if you have a limited media budget , you can focus it on customers that have a high likelihood to buy and not spend too much on the ones that are long shots |
| 23 | +- Don't use unless there's a real, measurable cost from targeting broadly ([source](https://betterthanrandom.substack.com/p/do-you-really-need-a-lead-scoring)) |
| 24 | + - Example: Sales Team |
| 25 | + - You have ten account executives and five thousand accounts to cover for opportunities. There is simply no way they can touch everyone. A lead scoring model helps allocate scarce human effort to the places where it is most likely to pay off. |
| 26 | + - Cost: sales reps’ time. |
| 27 | + - There are only so many humans, only so many calls they can make, only so many hours in the quarter. The cost is visible on the P&L (Profit and Loss). |
| 28 | + - Example: Product Team |
| 29 | + - Using propensity scores in some product surfaces and drive upsell banners, e.g. “Hey, you might love feature X." |
| 30 | + - Costs |
| 31 | + - Opportunity Cost because that banner space is finite, and if we use it to show an upsell nudge, we cannot show potentially more relevant information such as onboarding tips, recent bug fixes, or relevant industry news. |
| 32 | + - User Experience Cost because irrelevant messages can be annoying and degrade user satisfaction with the product. |
| 33 | + - Issues |
| 34 | + - Nobody really understands the notion of opportunity cost, it requires nuance. |
| 35 | + - User experience cost has a very laggy transmission cycle |
| 36 | + - Cost is unclear and likely negligible in trying to reach all customers. |
23 | 37 | - [Example]{.ribbon-highlight}: Using Google Analytics data |
24 | 38 | - Notes from [Scoring Customer Propensity using Machine Learning Models on Google Analytics Data](https://medium.com/artefact-engineering-and-data-science/scoring-customer-propensity-using-machine-learning-models-on-google-analytics-data-ba1126469c1f) |
25 | 39 | - Data |
26 | 40 | - Used GA360 so the raw data is nested at the session-level |
27 | 41 | - See [Google, Analytics \>\> Misc](google-analytics-reports.qmd#sec-goog-anal-rep-misc){style="color: green"} \>\> "Google Analytics data in BigQuery" for more details on this type of data |
28 | 42 | - After processing you want 1 row per customer |
29 | 43 | - GA keeps data for 3 months by default |
| 44 | + - Product usage logs, interactions with marketing materials, CRM records, past purchase history, support tickets, firmographic information |
30 | 45 | - Create features\ |
31 | 46 |  |
32 | 47 | - General Features - metrics that give general information about a session |
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