run (02/27/2025)

Author: actions-user

data/wp_data.csv

@@ -3290,3 +3290,7 @@ Inappropriate Technology: Evidence from Global Agriculture,Jacob Moscona & Karth
 A Neoclassical Model of the World Financial Cycle,"Yan Bai, Patrick J. Kehoe, Pierlauro Lopez, Fabrizio Perri","Emerging markets face large and persistent fluctuations in sovereign spreads. To what extent are these fluctuations driven by local shocks versus financial conditions in advanced economies? To answer this question, we develop a neoclassical business cycle model of a world economy with an advanced country, the North, and many emerging market economies, the South. Northern households invest in domestic stocks, domestic defaultable bonds, and international sovereign debt. Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern spreads' fluctuations. Over the whole 1994-2024 period, however, Northern shocks account for less than 20% of these fluctuations.",https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/working-paper/wp-2506-neoclassical-model-of-the-world-financial-cycle,25-06,02.25.2025,FED-CLEVELAND,02/26/2025
 Portfolio Margining Using PCA Latent Factors,Shengwu Du and Travis D. Nesmith,"Filtered historical simulation (FHS)—a simple method of calculating Value-at-Risk that reacts quickly to changes in market volatility—is a popular method for calculating margin at central counterparties. However, FHS does not address how correlation can vary through time. Typically, in margin systems, each risk factor is filtered individually so that the computational burden increases linearly as the number of risk factors grows. We propose an alternative method that filters historical returns using latent risk factors derived from principal component analysis. We compare this method's performance with ""traditional"" FHS for different simulated and constructed portfolios. The proposed method performs much better when there are large changes in correlation. It also performs well when that is not the case, although some care needs to be taken with certain concentrated portfolios. At the same time, the computational requirements can be reduced significantly. Backtesting comparisons are performed using data from 2020 when markets were stressed by the COVID-19 crisis.",https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/portfolio-margining-using-pca-latent-factors.htm,2025-016,February 2025,FED-BOARD,02/26/2025
 Impulse Response Diagnostics for Priors on Parameters in Structural Vector Autoregressions,Lutz Kilian,"Structural impulse response functions may be estimated based on priors about the parameters of the structural VAR presentation. Even when such priors appear seemingly reasonable, they may imply an unintentionally informative prior for the structural impulse responses. Rather than pretending that the posterior of the impulse responses does not depend on this prior, the proposal in this paper is to verify that the prior distribution of the vector of impulse responses of interest is not unintentionally informative. Moreover, if the impulse response prior is intentionally informative, this point must be conveyed, so the reader can properly evaluate the reported conclusions. This paper discusses easy-to-use diagnostic tools that help practitioners address these concerns.",https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2025/wp2507.pdf,2507,"February 15, 2025",FED-DALLAS,02/26/2025
+Black Mayors and Black Communities,Craig Sylvera,"Do Black communities economically benefit from the election of a Black mayor? I find majority-Black ZIP codes experience gains in all areas of economic activity relative to non-Black communities following the first election of a Black mayor. Across industries, the number of establishments in majority-Black ZIP codes increases, including those that rely on foot traffic. Before breakthrough elections, Black residents are less likely than white residents to identify as self-employed across all cities, but this difference is reduced after an election; however, the cities in which the pre-breakthrough self-employment difference is larger experience no changes to the B–W self-employment gap post-election, suggesting institutional and historical factors may limit Black economic progress in places of higher disparity.",https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/working-paper/wp-2507-black-mayors-and-black-communities,25-07,02.26.2025,FED-CLEVELAND,02/27/2025
+Educational Exposure to Generative Artificial Intelligence,Jean Xiao Timmerman,"The release of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022 unleashed a wave of interest in how generative artificial intelligence (AI) may reshape workplaces and affect occupations. Some studies have shown that generative AI may improve work productivity (see, e.g., Noy and Zhang 2023; Dell'Acqua et al. 2023; Brynjolfsson et al. 2023) and that high-skill and white-collar occupations may be the most exposed, though it is uncertain whether higher exposure means that work tasks will be automated away or augmented (Felten et al. 2023; Eloundou et al. 2023; but see Gmyrek et al. 2023).",https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/educational-exposure-to-generative-artificial-intelligence-20250226.html,1017016238071723703,"February 26, 2025",FED-BOARD-NOTES,02/27/2025
+The heterogeneous effects of household debt relief,"Miguel A. Ferreira, Manuel Adelino, Miguel Oliveira","Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of income shocks. Mortgage payment suspension increases consumption and savings, but effects differ across households. Low liquid wealth and income are associated with a higher marginal propensity to consume. Additionally, ineligible households accessing forbearance show a higher propensity to consume than eligible ones. Our results suggest that observable household characteristics can help in the design of effective debt relief policies.",https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3034~c4c54c8e70.en.pdf?def51c5f46d5d25bb7e288635d904793,3034,26 February 2025,ECB,02/27/2025
+Central bank liquidity facilities around the world,"David Arseneau, Mark Carlson, Kathryn Chen, Matt Darst, Dylan Kirkeeng, Elizabeth Klee, Matt Malloy, Benjamin Malin, Emilie O'Malley, Friederike Niepmann, Mary-Frances Styczynski, Melissa Vanouse, and Alexandros P. Vardoulakis","A core task of central banks is to provide liquidity to banks, with the goal of facilitating monetary policy implementation, ensuring the smooth functioning of the payment system, and promoting financial stability. While central banks around the world pursue these goals, the design of liquidity facilities differs across countries. This note provides an overview of liquidity facilities around the world that resemble the Federal Reserve’s discount window as well as intraday credit, comparing and contrasting setups in different countries.",https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/central-bank-liquidity-facilities-around-the-world-20250226.html,1017016238071723740,"February 26, 2025",FED-BOARD-NOTES,02/27/2025