why_we_lost_the_preakness.txt

If the rain and thunder had started after the 11th Race in Pimlico, maybe I
would have had time to re-asess my bets that I had already made. Unfortunately,
the rain and thunder began after the 12th race before the Preakness in the 13th
race. 

Besides my trifecta box bets on 1, 2 and 8 (American Pharoah, Dortmund and
Firing Line)and heavy place bet on 8, I could have seen in the Racing Form
American Pharaoh had won on a sloppy track in March, leading wire to wire and
winning by 6 1/2 lengths easily. So, he liked an off track. None of the other
horses past performances had races in a sloppy track, so their running ability
on an off track was unknown. With that decisive performance by American Pharaoh
already a favorite on a fast track would make selecting him for a win bet to be
overwhelming, say $200 to win. 

Exacta bets with American Pharaoh wheeled on top with all the rest of the field
might be considered a hindsight bet, I don't really know if I would deduce to
do it: A $1 exacta for each of the seven posibilities only costs $7, so a
  wheeled $10 exacta would be $70. If a favored horse #2 or 8 came in the
  payoff would be very low, perhaps break-even for the bet, but gambling a long
  shot came in second might be worth the bet given that it is a sloppy track
  and anything can happen given no history in the Racing Form. 

With American Pharaoh on top and wheeling all combinations for second and third
position, there are 42 combinations. So, wheeling in this manner for a $2
trifecta costs $84. 

So, here are the results:

$200 win bet collects $380

$70 Exacta wheeled bet collects $622

$84 Trifecta wheeled bet collects $985

Total winnings: ($380+$622+$985) - ($200+$70+$84) = $1,633. This would have
recouped all losses on the earlier bets when assuming a fast track for the
Preakness.

Perhaps this could be a betting insight alternative for the Belmont Stakes.
Don't know what horses will be running and the track conditions. Will American
Pharoah become a triple crown winner?

Dad