feat(skills): Role 4 Risk Manager skill manifest

skills/trading/risk-manager/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+---
+name: risk-manager
+description: "Role 4 — Risk Manager: enforce the ADR-009 12-gate framework on a candidate trade; veto, resize, or allow. Fail-closed."
+version: 0.1.0
+platforms: [linux, macos]
+metadata:
+  hermes:
+    tags: [trading, risk, gates, adr-009, role, veto, paper]
+    role: risk_manager
+    model_tier: T3
+    related_skills: [orchestrator, quant, reviewer]
+---
+
+# Risk Manager (Role 4)
+
+## Overview
+
+The Risk Manager is the **order-path veto**. Given a candidate trade it runs the
+deterministic ADR-009 12-gate pipeline and returns a `GateVerdict`: `ALLOW`,
+`RESIZE` (stake adjusted), or a `BLOCK_*` (entry vetoed / cooldown imposed).
+
+This role is **rules, not vibes** (model tier T3). The 12 gates are pure
+deterministic functions — the LLM does **not** decide pass/fail. The skill is a
+thin wrapper; an LLM is consulted **only** for a genuine novel market condition
+not covered by the rule book, and even then the deterministic verdict stands on
+any LLM/provider error.
+
+Authority: VETO on the order path (block any entry, reduce any size, force exit
+timing). **Cannot** override the Orchestrator's global pause; **cannot** approve
+live capital. v0 is **paper-only**.
+
+## Prerequisites
+
+- `hermes-trader` importable (`hermes_trader.risk.risk_manager`).
+- A `committee_to_risk.v1` link payload and a `PortfolioState`.
+
+## Inputs
+
+A kanban `task_links` payload validated against `hermes.role_link.committee_to_risk.v1`
+(ADR-013A §6.5.2): `trade_id`, `asset`, `direction` (long|short), `stake_pct`,
+`candidate_confidence`, `regime`, `intel_v3`, `source_signals`, `paper_only`
+(MUST be true in v0). Plus account state — equity, starting equity, the
+`shadow_orders` history, and active `blocked_trades` cooldowns.
+
+## How to run
+
+```python
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from hermes_trader.risk.risk_manager import evaluate, block, PortfolioState
+
+verdict = evaluate(
+    link_payload,                       # the committee_to_risk.v1 dict
+    portfolio=PortfolioState(
+        equity=equity, starting_equity=starting_equity,
+        shadow_orders=shadow_orders, active_blocks=active_blocks,
+    ),
+    now_utc=datetime.now(timezone.utc),
+)
+# verdict.allowed -> the single bit the order path consumes
+# verdict.block_to_record -> persist to hermes.blocked_trades if not None
+```
+
+`block(asset, gate, duration_s, now_utc=...)` constructs a time-bounded
+`BlockRecord`; the caller's storage layer performs the `blocked_trades` INSERT.
+
+## Outputs
+
+`GateVerdict(trade_id, allowed, verdict, gate_name, reason, final_stake_pct,
+block_to_record, gate_results, fail_closed)`. `allowed` is True only for
+`ALLOW` / `RESIZE`.
+
+## Fail-closed (mandatory)
+
+A risk gate fails **CLOSED** — denies the trade — never a silent ALLOW:
+
+- malformed / missing-field link payload → `BLOCK` (`fail_closed=true`)
+- wrong schema, or `paper_only=false` in v0 → `BLOCK`
+- pipeline exception → `BLOCK` + escalate to Orchestrator
+- LLM/provider error on an edge-case judgement → the deterministic verdict stands
+
+## Forbidden actions
+
+Live order submission · direct exchange/wallet access · schema migration ·
+systemd/cron mutation · paid API spend without operator approval · overriding the
+Orchestrator global pause · approving a trade the pipeline blocked (the role may
+only veto/resize, never un-block).
+
+## Escalate to a human (Allaert via Orchestrator)
+
+Drawdown breaches the maxDD threshold (15%, ADR-009 Amendment A) · correlation
+> 0.70 breached · gate bypass attempted · multiple simultaneous gate failures ·
+a novel market condition not in the rule book.
+
+## References
+
+- Implementation: `hermes-trader/src/hermes_trader/risk/risk_manager.py`
+- Gate engine: `hermes-trader/src/hermes_trader/risk/risk_pipeline.py` (`evaluate_risk_pipeline`)
+- v0 build contract: `~/hermes-plan/HERMES_ROLE4_RISK_MANAGER_V0_CONTRACT_2026-05-17.md`
+- Architecture: ADR-013A `HERMES_ROLE_ARCHITECTURE_2026-05-16.md` § Role 4