The AV Parole Project is dedicated to analyzing and visualizing data related to individuals in prison who are past their parole eligibility. The project leverages data from the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) to generate insights into the criminal justice system, focusing on trends in incarceration, parole eligibility, prison releases, and disparities across race, ethnicity, and sex.
National Snapshot Page:
https://avparoleproject.netlify.app/national_trends
Example of State Report (Georgia):
https://avparoleproject.netlify.app/state_report_georgia
For this project, we primarily used NCRP data, including the year-end population and release files. While the most recent data available is from 2020, 2019 was found to be more reliable for analysis, and most state-specific reports rely on 2019 data. An exception is Hawaii, where 2018 data was used to ensure more reliable estimates.
To estimate the number of individuals in prison past parole eligibility, Sebastián Guzmán (CSG Research) imputed values by integrating information from NCRP's year-end population, release, and terms records, as well as publicly available data regarding prison populations and parole eligibility criteria by state. These are called "consolidated files".
For analyses involving age at year-end, the unconsolidated files are used, as this information is not available in the consolidated files. The unconsolidated files allow us to calculate the proportion of people in prison and past parole eligibility based on their age at year-end.
- Data Processing: Load and clean BJS and NCRP records to create standardized datasets for analysis.
- Disparity Analysis: Identify and quantify disparities in incarceration and parole eligibility based on race, ethnicity, and sex.
- Data Visualization: Develop visualizations that communicate key findings, such as trends over time and comparisons between different demographic groups.
- State-Specific Insights: Generate state-level reports and visualizations.
National Snapshot:
- Projected parole eligibility populations by state.
- Display interactive hex map for state comparisons.
Parole Eligibility Tab:
- State-by-state trends in people in prison past parole eligibility
- Break down demographic data by race, sex, age, sentence length, and offense type.
Population Tab:
- Examine state-by-state trends in prison populations.
- Break down demographic data by race, sex, age, sentence length, and offense type.
Prison Releases Tab:
- Examine state-by-state trends in prison releases.
- Analyze release types (conditional vs. unconditional).
- Break down demographic data by race, sex, age, and offense type.
Disparities Tab:
- Calculate Relative Rate Index (RRI) for incarceration past parole eligibility.
- Visualize disparities by race, ethnicity, and sex in time served and incarceration past parole eligibility.
avparolenetlify/
│
├── R/
│ ├── config.R
│ ├── pull_state_findings.R
│ ├── run.R
│ ├── prep/
│ │ ├── import/
│ │ │ ├── import_format.R
│ │ │ ├── historical_ncrp_term_records.R
│ │ │ └── helper_functions_import.R
│ │ ├── analysis/
│ │ │ ├── tab_releases.R
│ │ │ ├── tab_population.R
│ │ │ ├── tab_parole_eligibility.R
│ │ │ ├── tab_disparities.R
│ │ │ ├── tab_disparities_rris.R
│ │ │ ├── page_national_trends.R
│ │ │ └── helper_functions.R
R/:
- run.R: Runs all R code and automates the creation of Quarto documents for rendering. Use this R file for general instructions for how to run all code and generate the website.
- config.R: Centralized configuration file where you define file paths, global settings, and parameters that are used throughout the project. This makes it easy to change settings without modifying individual scripts.
- pull_state_findings.R: Extracts and summarizes state-specific data from NCRP term records. It generates findings for each state, which can be used in the state reports.
R/prep/:
This folder contains scripts for data import and analysis, divided into import and analysis subfolders.
R/prep/import:
- import_format.R: Importing, formatting, and standardizing raw data.
- historical_ncrp_term_records.R: Processes NCRP term records data from 2014 to 2020. The script loads raw data, cleans it by trimming characters and whitespace, and organizes the data for analysis. This cleaned data serves as a base for subsequent imputation by Seba Guzman in Stata.
- helper_functions_import.R: Contains utility functions to assist with data import tasks, such as custom cleaning routines, data transformation functions, and helpers to manage file loading.
R/prep/analysis/:
- tab_parole_eligibility.R: Analyzes data related to parole eligibility, including who becomes eligible for parole and the characteristics of people in prison past parole eligibility.
- tab_population.R: Analyzes data related prison populations, including changes over time and differences across demographic groups.
- tab_releases.R: Analyzes data related to prison releases. This script focuses on identifying patterns and trends in release data, including how these trends vary by demographic factors like age, race, and sex.
- tab_disparities.R: Focuses on identifying disparities in parole eligibility by race, ethnicity, and sex.
- tab_disparities_rris.R: Computes and analyzes Relative Rate Indexes (RRIs) to quantify disparities in parole release.
- page_national_trends.R: Uses 2023 projections to visualize national trends of people in prison past parole eligibility.
- helper_functions.R: Contains reusable functions that support various analysis tasks, such as data transformations, statistical calculations, and custom visualizations.
This data does not contain personally identifiable information and does not need to be destroyed by a specific deadline.
Public Data Sources:
- National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP)
- Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
Caution for Hispanic Data:
- Interpret RRI findings for Hispanic populations with caution due to inconsistent data collection and reporting across states.
Authors:
- Mari Roberts, Sebastián Guzman