TPI-016 eval-first monkey model send-or-wait decision card

notes/pr15_update_summary.md

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+# PR #15 Update Summary
+
+## Send-or-wait decision card
+
+The branch now defines one three-branch card that lets the next actor choose exactly one path:
+- send now
+- wait
+- hand to intake
+
+## Branch selection rule
+
+The branch now defines one first-match rule so the next actor chooses only one
+branch and does not mix states.
+
+## Current reality mapping
+
+The branch now maps current operational reality to exactly one chosen branch.
+
+## Current label
+
+`continue_sharpening`
+
+## Current bottleneck
+
+One returned filled provider block is still missing.

notes/tpi_016_decision.md

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+# TPI-016 Decision
+
+## Current bottleneck
+
+The only blocker is still the absence of one returned filled provider block.
+
+## Decision label
+
+`continue_sharpening`
+
+## Exact next action
+
+Choose exactly one branch from the send-or-wait decision card based on current reality:
+- send now
+- wait
+- hand to intake
+
+## Branch selection rule
+
+Do not mix branches. Evaluate in this order:
+
+1. `hand to intake`
+2. `send now`
+3. `wait`
+
+Use the first branch whose preconditions are satisfied.
+
+## Current reality to chosen branch
+
+- no dispatch sent and no reply present -> `send now`
+- dispatch already sent and no reply present -> `wait`
+- returned block present and both checks pass -> `hand to intake`
+- returned block present but checks do not pass -> remain `continue_sharpening`

notes/tpi_016_send_or_wait_card.md

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+# TPI-016 Send-or-Wait Decision Card
+
+## Decision branches
+
+### Branch A: send now
+Use this branch only when:
+- `outbound_dispatch_sent: no`
+- no returned filled block exists yet
+
+Action:
+- send the fixed TPI-012 outbound dispatch packet
+- update the operator send record immediately
+
+### Branch B: wait
+Use this branch only when:
+- `outbound_dispatch_sent: yes`
+- `returned_filled_block_present: no`
+
+Action:
+- keep waiting on provider reply
+- do not reopen old debates
+- keep the operational record explicit
+
+### Branch C: hand to intake
+Use this branch only when:
+- `returned_filled_block_present: yes`
+- `returned_block_matches_exact_shape: yes`
+- `transition_rule_passed: yes`
+
+Action:
+- pass the returned block into TPI-011 intake
+- start fixed verification only if intake accepts it
+
+## First-match rule
+
+Check the branches in this order and choose the first one whose conditions are
+fully satisfied:
+
+1. Branch C: hand to intake
+2. Branch A: send now
+3. Branch B: wait
+
+Choose exactly one branch. Do not mix actions across branches.
+
+## Current reality mapping
+
+- if `returned_filled_block_present: yes` and both checks are `yes` -> Branch C
+- if `outbound_dispatch_sent: no` and no returned block exists -> Branch A
+- if `outbound_dispatch_sent: yes` and no returned block exists -> Branch B
+- if a returned block exists but exact-shape or transition is not `yes`, stay on
+  `continue_sharpening`, keep the record explicit, and do not start intake