AI Advantage Sports

ML-driven sports betting product: predictions, Kelly-based bet sizing, live odds, and a real subscription surface. Live at aiadvantagesports.com.

Why this exists

Most "AI betting" projects stop at a notebook. This one ships.

AI Advantage turns model output into a decision a user can actually act on:

• Predict — model-driven picks across NBA, NFL, and MLB
• Size — Kelly-based stake recommendations that protect bankroll
• Time — live odds and line-movement views to catch value before the market adjusts
• Monetize — premium tier with real Stripe checkout, not a fake paywall

It's the product layer of a larger sports-analytics stack — the modeling lives in adjacent repos, this is where it meets a user.

Feature tour

Area	What it does
Game analyzer	Enter a matchup, get an analysis and a recommendation
Live odds	Track lines and movement across the slate
Kelly sizing	Translate edge + bankroll into a stake
Multi-sport	NBA, NFL, MLB workflows
Premium	Stripe subscription + one-time checkout
Newsletter	Notion-backed capture wired into Substack

Stack

React · TypeScript · Vite · Tailwind CSS · shadcn/ui

Netlify Functions handle Stripe checkout, newsletter capture, and the shared execution ledger so previews and production stay fully functional.

Run it locally

git clone https://github.com/ianalloway/ai-advantage.git
cd ai-advantage
npm install
npm run dev

Open http://localhost:8080.

Deployment

• netlify.toml — Netlify SPA deploy + serverless functions (netlify/functions)
• api/ — shared server-side handlers (Stripe checkout, newsletter capture, execution ledger) wrapped by netlify/functions

Stripe (server flow)

STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_...
STRIPE_PREMIUM_PRICE_ID=price_...
STRIPE_ONE_TIME_PRICE_ID=price_...
STRIPE_WEBHOOK_SECRET=whsec_...
STRIPE_TRIAL_DAYS=7
PUBLIC_APP_URL=https://aiadvantagesports.com
AUTH_SECRET=...

Webhook endpoint: https://aiadvantagesports.com/.netlify/functions/stripe-webhook
Events: checkout.session.completed, checkout.session.async_payment_succeeded, customer.subscription.created|updated|deleted.

Paid access is server-truth only (/api/entitlements/me). localStorage is a cache and cannot unlock Pro.

Checkout includes a STRIPE_TRIAL_DAYS trial on Pro Monthly. Customer Portal: /api/create-portal-session (enable in Stripe Dashboard → Settings → Billing → Customer portal). Funnel events: checkout_started → checkout_paid → d7_retained → cancel_reason via /api/funnel. Hourly edge-alert emails: send-edge-alerts (needs RESEND_*).

Check readiness: curl -s https://aiadvantagesports.com/api/billing-status | jq
Production does not fall back to Payment Links when Checkout Sessions fail (that orphaned access).

Newsletter capture

The homepage form posts to /api/newsletter-subscribe, which creates a Notion entry, emails a notification, and redirects into the Substack subscribe flow.

NOTION_API_KEY=***
NOTION_PARENT_PAGE_ID=...
RESEND_API_KEY=re_...
RESEND_FROM_EMAIL="AI Advantage <onboarding@yourdomain.com>"
NOTIFY_EMAIL=ian@allowayllc.com
SUBSTACK_PUBLICATION_URL=https://allowayai.substack.com

Where the modeling lives

Repo	Role
sports-betting-ml	Models — logistic regression, XGBoost, ensembles
nba-ratings	Ratings + win-probability library
kelly-js	Kelly / odds / bankroll math (TS)

Author

Ian Alloway — Portfolio · LinkedIn · Writing

License

Proprietary. All rights reserved.