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feat: ML-powered pricing agent with online learning#25

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feat/ml-pricing-agent
Open

feat: ML-powered pricing agent with online learning#25
abhicris wants to merge 1 commit intomainfrom
feat/ml-pricing-agent

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Summary

  • Adds MLPricingAgent — market-making agent with online machine learning
  • Uses recursive least squares (RLS) to predict short-term price direction
  • Features: returns, volatility, momentum, inventory ratio
  • Volatility-adaptive spread + ML-confidence-weighted directional skew
  • Inventory-aware bid/ask adjustment to manage position risk
  • 10 tests covering spread dynamics, inventory skew, rebalancing, model learning

Test plan

  • Unit tests pass
  • Backtest against historical price data vs constant-spread agent
  • Compare PnL and Sharpe ratio against AvellanedaStoikov agent

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Adds MLPricingAgent — a market-making agent that uses recursive least
squares (RLS) online regression to predict short-term price direction
and dynamically adjust spreads and skew.

- Online linear model with exponential forgetting for non-stationarity
- Feature extraction: returns, volatility, momentum, inventory ratio
- Volatility-adaptive spread width + ML-confidence-weighted skew
- Inventory-aware bid/ask adjustment
- 10 tests covering spread dynamics, inventory skew, rebalancing

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <[email protected]>
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