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fix: stabilize and correct dividend forecasting algorithm#131

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letssayx wants to merge 1 commit into
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fix-dividend-forecast-logic-13173919053697817385
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fix: stabilize and correct dividend forecasting algorithm#131
letssayx wants to merge 1 commit into
feature/special-sit-arb-sector-filter-pdf-fixes-5728990643903260772from
fix-dividend-forecast-logic-13173919053697817385

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@letssayx letssayx commented May 5, 2026

Fixes the algorithmic inaccuracies reported by users on the Special Situations Arbitrage module. Corrects dividend cycles by isolating Finals from Interims, enforces mathematical CAGR constraints on growth projections (fixing the Britannia >300% issue), drops legacy dead cycles, avoids forecasting one-off "Special" dividends (fixing the Bajaj Finance and TMPV anomalies), correctly handles month-shifting cycles (like HDFC Bank shifting from May to June), attaches type labels to the frontend UI, and re-wires the prediction arrows to compare against the same cycle historical amount rather than just the globally latest amount.


PR created automatically by Jules for task 13173919053697817385 started by @letssayx

- Split Final and Interim dividends into independent projection clusters
- Increase temporal shifting tolerance for Interim clusters to 90 days to prevent cycle fragmentation
- Skip legacy cycles with no dividend activity in the past calendar year
- Cap projected Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) between -100% and +50% to prevent hyper-inflated anomalies
- Ignore "Special" and extraordinary dividends during cyclical modeling
- Correctly correlate frontend up/down projection arrows to the specific historical cycle rather than the absolute last payout
- Append predicted dividend type (Interim/Final) payload directly to UI outputs
- Hide expected amount entirely if payout is already announced to prevent dual-display redundancy

Co-authored-by: letssayx <[email protected]>
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@letssayx letssayx deleted the branch feature/special-sit-arb-sector-filter-pdf-fixes-5728990643903260772 May 5, 2026 05:35
@letssayx letssayx closed this May 5, 2026
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