fix(forecast-panel): theater card conf=0, scenario type badges, sorted paths

[koala73]

Summary

• conf=0 LLM anchor: Round 2 prompt used "confidence": 0.0 as placeholder in JSON example. LLMs copy placeholder values verbatim, causing all path gauges to show 0%. Replaced with representative values (0.35/0.50/0.15 for escalation/containment/market_cascade).
• Sort by confidence: topPaths[0] (the dominant path in the theater card gauge) was LLM output order. Cards could show the least-likely scenario as dominant. Now sorted descending before slice.
• Scenario type badges: pathId was stripped from uiTheaters Redis output. Added it back; added colour-coded fc-path-type badges (escalation red / containment green / market_cascade amber) to both theater card summary line and path cards in the detail view.
• conf=0 guard: Gauge label and path confidence text show — instead of 0% when confidence is zero, covering existing Redis data until next simulation run.

Test plan

• Theater cards show highest-confidence path in gauge, not first LLM output
• Theater with previously-zero confidence shows — in gauge (existing Redis data) then real values after next simulation run
• Expand a theater card: each path card shows coloured scenario badge (Escalation / Containment / Market Cascade)
• Typecheck passes

[vercel]

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1 Skipped Deployment

Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated (UTC)
worldmonitor	Ignored		Mar 28, 2026 5:48pm

[greptile-apps]

Greptile Summary

This PR fixes four related bugs in the ForecastPanel theater card feature: LLM placeholder confidence: 0.0 values being copied verbatim by the model, unsorted topPaths causing the least-likely scenario to appear dominant, missing pathId in the Redis uiTheaters payload, and the absence of a zero-confidence guard in the UI.

Key changes:

• seed-forecasts.mjs: Replaces 0.0 placeholder confidences in the Round 2 LLM prompt with representative values (0.35 / 0.50 / 0.15) that sum to 1 and signal proportional intent; adds pathId to the Redis-mapped path object; sorts topPaths descending by confidence before slicing to 3.
• ForecastPanel.ts: Adds PATH_ID_LABELS map and pathId to the SimulationPath interface; introduces colour-coded fc-path-type badges (red/green/amber) rendered in both the theater card summary line and the detail path cards; guards the gauge label and path confidence text to show — instead of 0% when confidence === 0.
• The zero-confidence guard handles existing Redis data transparently until the next simulation run repopulates with corrected values.

Confidence Score: 5/5

Safe to merge — all remaining findings are minor style/defensive-coding suggestions with no impact on correctness or runtime behaviour.

Both changes are well-scoped and self-contained. The zero-confidence guard, badge rendering, and sort are all correct. The only issues found are a P2 in-place mutation of the input array (harmless in the current call flow because R2 is written before the sort runs) and a P2 defensive-coding note about using an allow-list when interpolating pathId into CSS class names. Neither blocks merge.

No files require special attention — both files have only minor P2 suggestions.

Important Files Changed

Filename	Overview
scripts/seed-forecasts.mjs	Fixes LLM prompt placeholders (0.0 → representative values), adds confidence-sorted topPaths, and surfaces pathId in the Redis uiTheaters payload; sort mutates the original topPaths array (minor side-effect).
src/components/ForecastPanel.ts	Adds PATH_ID_LABELS map, pathId to SimulationPath, colour-coded fc-path-type badges in theater card and detail view, and a conf=0 guard that renders — instead of 0% in the gauge and path confidence text.

Sequence Diagram

sequenceDiagram
    participant LLM as LLM (Round 2)
    participant Seed as seed-forecasts.mjs
    participant R2 as R2 Storage
    participant Redis as Redis (uiTheaters)
    participant UI as ForecastPanel.ts

    LLM->>Seed: topPaths[] with representative confidences (0.35/0.50/0.15)
    Seed->>R2: putR2JsonObject(outcome) — original LLM order
    Seed->>Seed: sort topPaths desc by confidence
    Seed->>Seed: slice(0,3) + map (adds pathId)
    Seed->>Redis: SET uiTheaters (sorted, with pathId)

    UI->>Redis: fetch uiTheaters JSON
    Redis-->>UI: SimulationTheater[] (topPaths[0] = highest confidence)
    UI->>UI: renderTheaterCard → gauge shows topPaths[0].confidence
    UI->>UI: conf > 0 ? "X%" : "—"
    UI->>UI: pathId → fc-path-type badge (escalation/containment/market_cascade)

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